The gambler’s fallacy is closely related to the Hot Hand Fallacy, which is the belief in streaks of good/bad luck. Where someone experience what seems like an atypical sequence of events, they infer some special significance i.e. I am on a hot streak, or my luck is out.
The bets arrive by email usually between 10 and 11 am. Placing bets takes around 5 mins. I placed bets on BOG bookies. The prices advised by PAWS were nearly always available.
In his early days Martin Pipe had a reputation as something of a gambling stable before he came to dominate the sport like noone before, and the Pond House operation under David is certainly a yard to follow when the cash is down.
....if you had to cross shark infested water, it would make sense to follow someone one who has already done it successfully wouldn’t it?
Once I’ve determined that a horse’s performance can be classed as underestimated or overestimated against the same class of animal, I have a slight edge on the market with my opinion of how future races will pan out.
But how many tips services can actually say that the main reason people stop subscribing is because bookmakers no longer want their subscribers business?
On the all-weather courses, it is very important that horses are able to hold their position. It’s much harder to win from off the pace.
So let’s try and break down these 598 race winners to see if we can spot any patterns or trends and more importantly, see if the outsider of three is indeed worth backing.
If Turing were around in this day and age, he might just point out that he or she who best understands and applies the principles of Bayesian inference- whether knowingly or otherwise- is well placed to rule the betting world.
It's the same with people chasing losses. Consciously or unconsciously - mainly the latter - you have made a comittment to yourself to make money that day - most certainly not to lose!
There have been thousands of superb judges of form who have failed to successfully bet for a living and the main reason is a failing to translate these opinions into accurate prices.
I would hazard a guess that not many gamblers keep stats this detailed. Professionals will certainly keep stats like this because it shows which races are profitable to them – and these are the races to really take advantage of.
The key with each way betting is to play in uncompetitive races where very few runners can be given a realistic chance of reaching the frame.
The reason is that the public bets the favorites and they are less sophisticated gamblers and also do not accurately judge a horse's merits as well as more experienced handicappers.
Under four points profit over two months is not brilliant, but it has to be taken in context and many services appear to be struggling at the moment.
That simple equation, probability compared to the odds, is how you know if a horse is a good bet.
The moment when the general betting public incorrectly assess the probability of a horse winning the race.
... you can take price without having to think if its likely to be a drifter or a steamer, since if it drifts to a bigger Starting Price, you’ll get paid that bigger price.
Punters who neglect a second string just because the stable jockey has chosen the horse are ascribing sage-like qualities to racing professionals that time and again have been shown to be unmerited.
Frankel's stunning Queen Anne Stakes win is emphatically one in which the heart and head can provide the same answer: "Yes. Oh, yes indeed!"
To give some perspective on just how phenomenal this effort was, in provisionally rating Frankel 147, we still have Excelebration, the runner-up, running more than a stone below his previous best [133]. A point worth emphasising is the consistency with which Frankel has produced such performances. This is the fifth time that he has produced a 140+ rating.
Once you have used this technique on a few races, you will find that it takes just a few minutes to narrow down a big field to 7 or less potential runners.
When working with another punter, it is probably a good idea to deal with someone who has a somewhat different skill set; you probably don’t want to be polar opposites or you’ll never agree on anything but it is a good idea to have alternative views on things.
What Full Time Betting Income does is treat betting like a long term business whereby you do not expect to make any profit for a few years.
If you wish to become a successful punter it’s important that you fully understand the basic dynamics of how the betting market evolves.
There are hardly any world class jockeys riding in Britian today
The other tactic I use when perhaps I’m on a series of losers or barren spell is to take a look at the overall picture. That’s why I always create a graph of the running profit/loss for all the parts of my portfolio plus anything I’m paper trading. It gives a visual guide as to how important the actual upturn/downturn is and how relevant it is.
I want to show you how to read those “patterns in the sand”.
Rides in the Derby are very thin on the ground and we’re scratching our heads a bit.
All I am saying is don't give the concession and advertise it unless you will do what you say.
For more information on betting against horses I've also penned an 'introduction' at SkyBlueKangaroo:
Winning betting strategies: Laying Horses To Lose
You don't need to be a maths wiz to be successful betting value long-term. But you do need to understand probability. After all, this is the business. Betting odds represent the probability of a particular outcome and I see far too often people betting in point-blank black and white terms.
If you're not familiar with the Acres Of Diamonds story, it's about missed opportunities right on your very own doorstep.
It is only natural to want to be making money from your betting. But the area where many punters struggle, is with discipline and self-control. Most punters are too greedy.
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/3314260
It is not uncommon to only consider how much profit a tipster has been making recently, and how much money you can make. But, if you take a little bit longer then not only will you determine whether the tipster is correct for you, but also you will be on the track to make long-term profits from them!
