Betting strategy: How genius from the past can help us to profit from betting in the future

Unless you're still using the tried and trusted 'stick-a-pin-in-the-racecard' strategy, most likely you rely upon past information (form) to help you decide your bets.

 

I've found this in depth article at the Betfair site by TimeForm's Head of R&D Simon Rowlands which looks at Bayes Theorem.

 

Read the full article here [...]

 

 

It's a complex and involved article which probes betting theory, and the significance of recent form versus older form.

 

If Turing were around in this day and age, he might just point out that he or she who best understands and applies the principles of Bayesian inference- whether knowingly or otherwise- is well placed to rule the betting world.

 

What's the most complicated handicapping strategy you've come across? Did it help you win more?

 

What Everyone Ought To Know About Losing Runs

I was extremely excited recently to be invited by Calum Madell to guest post at TheYoungRaceGoer

 

The article I posted has caused quite a stir already...

 

Read my article here [...]

 

 

Do you find your fortunes swinging from good to bad, and back again, on a regular basis? Or do you find it relatively easy to cope with the entirely random nature of the profit curve? Share your experiences below.

Willie Amos Yard Visit – Imperial Racing Club Day Out

If you've ever considered racehorse ownership then hopefully today's post will give you something of an insight.

 

It's a piece by Ben Aitken who runs the magnificent Narrow The Field website. He was invited along to trainer Willie Amos's yard by the guys behind the Imperial Racing Club.

 

Read about Ben's day at the Willie Amos yard [...]

 

 

Ben took the opportunity to ask the guys at Imperial Racing some questions about racehorse ownership through their club.Very interesting reading.

I followed that horse off a cliff

Following a somewhat controversial article I posted recently at the SkyBlueKangaroo Blog the following question raised itself - Can the odds on a given event change, as a consequence of previous results?

 

So I went off to do some research and I found an article over at HighClassEquine which examines the topic...

 

I followed that horse over a cliff [...]

 

 

A study has shown that immediately after placing a bet punters are often more confident of their horse winning, compared to just before the bet.

 

It's the same with people chasing losses. Consciously or unconsciously - mainly the latter - you have made a comittment to yourself to make money that day - most certainly not to lose!

 

How does your mood affect your betting?

 

 

7-4 to Lay, 9-4 to Play : The importance of pricing up

When should we sit up and pay attention to a price movement, and when should we resist the urge to follow the crowd?

 

Stephen over at BettingExpert explains why it's important to have a personal view on the prices available in the betting market.

 

Why we should determine our own prices [...]

 

The herd mentality has become prevalent, particularly in spread betting.

 

 

With the domination of Betfair over prices, the over-betting of favourites is becoming more and more common, especially when traders anticipate price movements in the downward direction.

There have been thousands of superb judges of form who have failed to successfully bet for a living and the main reason is a failing to translate these opinions into accurate prices.

 

I've written a guide to pricing up a race and spotting valuye, and it's yours to download free when you join my newsletter

 

 

 

What Everyone Ought To Know About Losing Runs

We all anticipate the thrill of backing a winning horse. But there's the flipside - those losing runs. How should we manage them?

 

I've just posted an article at EzineArticles which describes three strategies you can use to minimise the emotional effect of losing periods.

 

What you should know about losing runs [...]

 

 

If you enjoyed that piece, and I hope you did, I also wrote more on the topic of losing runs a while back on SkyBlueKangaroo:

 

How to cope with losing runs

 

Can you share any tips on how you take losing runs in your stride? Leave a comment below.

 

 

How To Get The Most From Your Strike Rate In Horse Racing

Which is better? A strike rate of 60%, or a strike rate of 30%?

 

Think about it ... before you answer.

 

Of course, "It depends..."

 

Lee Greenhill who writes at HorseSpy has penned an article which delves deeper into the 'strike rate' statistic to see how we can make the most use of it.

 

Read Lee's article in full here [...]

 

It's a controversial article, and Lee starts off by saying he actually despises the term 'strike rate' when used in betting.

 

 

Strike rates can be used to measure your success in betting, but they are also often manipulated by tipsters to promote their services.

 

I would hazard a guess that not many gamblers keep stats this detailed. Professionals will certainly keep stats like this because it shows which races are profitable to them – and these are the races to really take advantage of.

 

Keeping records should form an important part of your daily betting regime, as outlined in the series of nine betting lessons featured at SkyBlueKangaroo.

 

Each-Way a Pleasure? The vital edge that punters have over the layers

Each way betting is often misunderstood and used the wrong way by punters, or simply seen as a lack of confidence in selections actually winning. However, when applied sensibly and logically, betting each-way can be a massive weapon with which to beat the bookmakers regularly and make steady profits.

 

Stephen is the Racing Editor over at BettingExpert and he's just posted this helpful article on each-way betting:

 

How to profit from each-way betting [...]

 

Many pro punters have reported their biggest wins have come with each-way multiples. They've been banking on landing the place accumulator, only to see each horse actually win.

 

The key with each way betting is to play in uncompetitive races where very few runners can be given a realistic chance of reaching the frame.

 

Do you play the each-way and place markets regularly? What's been your biggest success?

 

 

Understanding Horse Racing Classes

I got an email from a new HorseRacingTrends member the other day, asking about the different grades and classes of racing in the UK. HorseRacingTrends focuses on the top end of the scale, the Group races on the Flat and the Graded National Hunt races during the jumps season.

 

So I thought it would be a good idea to look for an article that explains the various race classes ... I found one, and here it is - it's by Michael Wilding over at Race Advisor.

 

Understanding Horse Racing Classes [...]

 

 

There are 7 classes in all, but some of these are sub-divided further.

 

 

Preparation: The Key to Being Successful at Horse Racing

New at SkyBlueKangaroo this week is a brilliant guest article from Lee Greenhill who writes at Horse Spy.

 

In this post Lee runs through the fundamentals of how he plans his daily racing analysis.

 

Read Lee's article in full here [...]

 

 

Which Horses Offer the Best Value Based on the Morning Line

It's not ground-breaking news when I tell you there's often value to be found in early prices -- Morning Line prices. But you may want to know where to find these elusive value bets when you log in to Betfair in the morning.

 

Bill Peterson has penned an interesting article which discusses a process to uncover horses under-estimated by the betting market, and so hopefully secure some value bets.

 

Read the full article here [...]

 

 

Bill also discusses the 'sweet spot' in the betting market, where the value can often be found.

 

The reason is that the public bets the favorites and they are less sophisticated gamblers and also do not accurately judge a horse's merits as well as more experienced handicappers.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/7060505

 

There's more articles on the topic of value betting at my blog:

 

http://skybluekangaroo.com/value-betting/

 

 

 

 

We Buy Beting Systems Because We Are Lazy

Yesterday I received some exciting news! Lee Greenhill over at Horse Spy dropped me an email to let me know he'd published an article of mine on his web site.

 

It's all about why we buy betting systems, and which one's in particular we should look out for.

 

Read We Buy Betting Systems Because We Are Lazy here.

 

 

Thanks Lee, and I hope your readers enjoy the article.

FINAL REVIEW: DreamLays

Writing on the Cashmaster betting systems review blog, Michael has posted his final review of the DreamLays subscription service.

 

Read Michael's review in full here [...]

 

DreamLays is a subscription service advising horses to lay to lose their race, and at prices less than 2/1

 

During the review period results were recorded to BSP, so they would be not only consistent with, but identical to DreamLays and Racing Index.

 

Under four points profit over two months is not brilliant, but it has to be taken in context and many services appear to be struggling at the moment.

 

Click here for more betting systems reviews

 

 

Finding Good Horse Racing Bets With Simple Math and Practice

Is there a magical mathematical equation that contains the key to making profits from betting on horseracing?

 

Bill Peterson at the Gambling Willie blog suggests that maybe there is.

 

Read Bill's article in full by clicking here [...]

 

 

Bill says, "It isn't that difficult to figure out if a horse is a good bet and that's the key to making a profit."

 

That simple equation, probability compared to the odds, is how you know if a horse is a good bet.

 

For another detailed look at what it takes to gain an edge over the betting market, read this article on value betting at my blog SkyBlueKangaroo:

 

The most important piece in the betting puzzle [...]

 

 

 

 

Horses to note from Royal Ascot...

As the dust settles on the Royal Ascot meeting (granted, there's not a whole lot of dust anywhere at the moment, given the amount of rain that's falling), Gavin Priestley from Nag3 has whipped out his notebook of horses to follow...

 

Gavin's Top 10 To Follow From Royal Ascot [...]

 

 

Any horses you would add to Gavin's list?

The Penalty Kick Betting System

The Euro2012 football championships concluded yesterday, with a win for the Spanish team. So to continue the football theme...

 

To what degree does giving a horse a penalty weight to carry effect its performance? Today's post attempts to answer that question, and gives you a couple of betting systems which take advantage of horses carrying a penalty.

 

It's a guest post by Dave Renham of Punter Profits, and it can be found ovr at GeeGeez.

 

Here's Dave's article [...]

 

 

Dave suggests there are many profitable opportunities to follow penalty carriers.

 

...although they are forced to the carry extra weight of the penalty, trainers often try to take advantage of the horse being in form before being reassessed by the handicapper.

 

I've also written a piece about the effect of weight on a horse's performance.

 

Do you factor in any additional weight to be carried by a horse, when you're assessing its chances in a race?