What Is Value?

We're constantly told to "look for the value" in our betting if we want to make a profit. But what is value?

 

Michael Wilding from Race Advisor has written a series of articles which attempts to answer that very question.

 

Click here to read the first post in the series [...]

 

Michael determines 'value' as:

 

The moment when the general betting public incorrectly assess the probability of a horse winning the race.

 

Back at my SkyBlueKangaroo blog I discuss value betting on a regular basis. How much attention do you pay to getting value into your bets? Is it important to you? Or do you simply focus on finding the winner? After all, its generally the winner that pays out.

Best Odds Guaranteed – How much money is it worth?

Best Odds Guaranteed. It sounds good but what does it really mean for us punters? And what will Best Odds Guaranteed do for you in practice?

 

Paul Ruffy from the excellent Betting Profits Bulltin blog answers these questions in an article he posted recently:

 

Get the low-down on Best Odds Guaranteed [...]

 

 

The idea is that you can take a price with a bookmaker and not have to worry if the price shortens or lengthens, as you'll always be granted the better odds.

 

... you can take price without having to think if its likely to be a drifter or a steamer, since if it drifts to a bigger Starting Price, you’ll get paid that bigger price.

 

To achieve long term profits from betting, you need to be securing the best odds you can, and Best Odds Guaranteed is certainly one way to help you achieve this.

 

For more advice on value betting, you'll learn more here:

 

http://skybluekangaroo.com/value-betting/

 

 

 

 

Betting Theory: Calculated Bets

Have you ever dreamed of owning a piece of software that could accurately predict the outcome of any horse race? Do you think it possible someone could program your computer to scan the day's race cards and advise you which bets to place? (I had that very same dream back in 1995 and this is the embarrassing story about it.)

 

Over at Slipperyttoad you might want to watch the video they've posted. The video is by Steven Skiena the author of “Calculated Bets” (Computers, Gambling, and Mathematical Modeling to Win) in which he outlines his approach to create a mathematical model that was used to earn substantial profits betting on the game of Jai Alai.

 

Go watch the video here [...]

 

The Toad says he's found a number of useful techniques buried deep in the book that are applicable to mathematical modelling and betting on horse racing.

 

 

 

Second string, but not second best!

Yesterday we saw a jubilant Frankie Dettori aboard Colour Vision nose past his fellow Godolphin jockey Mickael Barzalona to win the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot. Watching Frankie's reaction immediately after the finish, you could sense a number of demons were sent packing off down Ascot High Street. Now there's been a certain amount of conjecture about the status of Frankie in the Godolphin camp - is he the #1 jockey?

 

On that topic, Tony Keenan has posted a great article over at GeeGeez.

 

Read the full 'Second String, But Not Second Best' article here [...]

 

Frankie Dettori, still number one?

 

 

In the article Tony examines the typical market reaction to the choice of the stable jockey, when faced with options for a particular race.

 

Punters who neglect a second string just because the stable jockey has chosen the horse are ascribing sage-like qualities to racing professionals that time and again have been shown to be unmerited.

 

Here's the link to another Frankie article I posted a few weeks back:

 

Is Dettori past it?

 

 

Frankel: Queen Anne winner is Timeform's highest-rated horse in history on 147

As Frankel claims the accolade of 'best Flat horse ever', here's an insight into the race ratings organisation Timeform. They have awarded his performance on Tuesday in the Queen Anne Stakes a mark of 147. What does that mean exactly...?

 

An explanation of the mechanics of Timeform's assessment [...]

 

 

Timeform was founded in 1948 by Phil Bull with the goal of defining dispassionately the performances of horses.

 

Frankel's stunning Queen Anne Stakes win is emphatically one in which the heart and head can provide the same answer: "Yes. Oh, yes indeed!"

 

Which ratings service do you rely upon, or do you create your own ratings?

 

 

 

Four Legs Eleven

Sir Henry Cecil's amazing Frankel has been given a provisional Timeform rating of 147 following his routing of a top class field in yesterday's Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. This mark puts him at the top of the All Time Flat list.

 

Frankel 147

Sea Bird 145
Brigadier Gerard, Tudor Minstrel 144
Abernant, Ribot, Windy City 142
Mill Reef 141
Dancing Brave, Dubai Millennium, Sea The Stars, Shergar, Vaguely Noble 140

 

 

His victory by 11 lengths also took the wonder horse to 11 successive wins. The Coral-Eclipse at Sandown, and the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood look to be his next targets, and it would be a brave man who bets against him finishing the year still unbeaten.

 

Timeform's Flat editor, David Johnson, said:

 

To give some perspective on just how phenomenal this effort was, in provisionally rating Frankel 147, we still have Excelebration, the runner-up, running more than a stone below his previous best [133]. A point worth emphasising is the consistency with which Frankel has produced such performances. This is the fifth time that he has produced a 140+ rating.

 

For more horse racing and betting articles visit my blog at SkyBlueKangaroo.com

 

Royal Ascot 2012 style guide

Today is the first day of this year's Royal Ascot meeting. Are you going? If so, you may want to watch this video released by the Telegraph's fashion department:

 

VIDEO: How to get dressed for Royal Ascot [...]

 

 

Tell us if you're planning a day at Royal Ascot this year? Any tips?

How To Narrow the Field For Big Races

There's nothing quite like picking the winner from a big field handicap like the Royal Hunt Cup or the Wokingham. You will usually be rewarded with a fat double-figure price, and it'll be steak and champagne for dinner!

 

But where on earth do you start when it comes to solving the puzzle of a big field of runners? Michael Wilding at Race Advisor posted a really useful article recently, which goes some way to pointing us all in the right direction.

 

How to narrow down the field [...]

 

 

I like to use several techniques when it comes to the big races, and my favourite is using trends analysis. Michael uses several factors, including the betting market, acting on the going, and figures showing running to form.

 

Once you have used this technique on a few races, you will find that it takes just a few minutes to narrow down a big field to 7 or less potential runners.

 

How do you go about making a shortlist of runners? Share your thoughts below. 

The Punting Confessional: it’s good to talk!

How often do you discuss your thoughts on the day's racing with other people?

 

Betting is often a lonely pursuit, and gamblers are frequently seen by society at large as sorry addicts with nothing else to occupy their lives.

 

Tony Keenan has written an in-depth piece over at GeeGeez which discusses the importance of communication as part of your daily betting regime.

 

Read the latest Punting Confessional article here [...]

 

The idea of working with fellow punters may at first be quiet daunting, but the benefits can be a far more polished (and hopefully profitable) approach, with the combination of different skill-sets.

 

When working with another punter, it is probably a good idea to deal with someone who has a somewhat different skill set; you probably don’t want to be polar opposites or you’ll never agree on anything but it is a good idea to have alternative views on things.

 

Here's the link to the full article:

 

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/the-punting-confessional-its-good-to-talk/

 

 

 

 

REVIEW: Full Time Betting Income

Graham Laurie over at the grand-daddy of all betting system review blogs Cashmaster has recently posted his review of Full Time Betting Income.

 

Read the full review here [...]

 

Graham's been following this plan since around this time last year, so it's a very comprehensive overview.

 

What Full Time Betting Income does is treat betting like a long term business whereby you do not expect to make any profit for a few years.

 

See what Graham ultimately thinks of Full Time Betting Income, and whether he recommends it worth the investment of your cash.

 

Full Time Betting Income

Successful Punters Understand the Dynamics of the Betting Market

This is a really insightful piece by Jonathan Burgess who writes a guest post at the blog this week.

 

In this article Jonathan explains how three key statistics can effect the betting market.

 

Read Jonathan's article here [...]

 

 

Jonathan says it's wise to focus on three primary evolving statistics - namely horse odds, trainer statistics, and favourite statistics.

 

If you wish to become a successful punter it’s important that you fully understand the basic dynamics of how the betting market evolves.

 

Here's that link again to read the full article:

 

http://skybluekangaroo.com/guest/successful-punters-understand-the-dynamics-of-the-betting-market/

 

 

Odds 'n' sods

To help fill the gap between the Derby meeting and Royal Ascot, here's a controversial little piece from PG's Tips about the apparent lack of Flat jockey talent.

 

Read the article in full [...]

 

 

Read what ex-jockey, BBC racing pundit, and I'm A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here contestant Willie Carson has been saying...

 

There are hardly any world class jockeys riding in Britian today

 

Have your say: Do you agree with WC? Which jockeys do you think deserve more credit than they currently receive?

 

 

All about the jockey – Paul Hannagan

A superb write up on jockey Paul Hanagan by guest contributor at Racing Advisor The Jag.

 

All you need to know about Champion Jockey Paul Hanagan [...}